Analysis: North Korea's nuclear ambitions can only be stopped by China

The Confucian virtue of filial piety is vitally important in the North Korean system, particularly in showing respect to the god-kings who rule the country. Kim Jong-un's late father, Kim Jong-il, was deeply attached to the nuclear programme, and some experts even believe that his Last Instructions commanded his young son and heir to continue and develop it.

Kim Jong-un is leader only because he was anointed by his father to succeed him, so to ignore Kim Jong-il's wishes, an act of flagrant impiety, would call into question his fitness to rule. Therefore, whatever he personally might think of the nuclear programme, Kim Jong-un is duty bound to continue with it.

Although I have had no direct contact with ordinary North Koreans since last week's test I doubt that popular reaction to it will be very different to what I found at the time of North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, when I lived in Pyongyang. I found then that my North Korean contacts reacted to it in many different ways. (North Koreans are not regimented automatons as is commonly thought, but sharply differentiated individuals, and I found as great a variety of opinion amongst them as anywhere else in the world).

Some glowed with pride. They knew that their country was backward and poor compared to South Korea, or even China, but here at last was a real achievement ? South Korea did not have nuclear weapons, but now their country did. Others were more thoughtful. They asked me how much the test had cost, and I shared with them estimates current at the time.

Then they asked how much a ton of rice cost. I do not doubt that they were working out how much rice could have been bought for the money spent on the test.

Incidentally I do not know how many of the North Koreans we have seen dancing in the streets to celebrate last week's test were genuine in their enthusiasm for the nuclear programme but I strongly suspect that they were all genuinely enjoying themselves. North Koreans love to sing and dance but do not get an excuse to hold a street party very often. A successful nuclear test probably seemed as good an excuse as any for many of them to put on their best clothes and practice their dance steps ? even in the winter cold.

What happens next will depend most of all on China.

Although North Korea depends on China for aid and trade, and despite repeated declarations of friendship by both sides, the North Koreans that I knew really did not like the Chinese, whom they regarded as rude, bullying, fond of eating the most disgusting things and with unfortunate personal habits. I once asked a friend whether they minded working with foreigners. They replied that they liked western foreigners, and found them polite and good company. "Not like Chinese", they said, shuddering.

My contacts with China suggest that this dislike is reciprocated. Some have told me that they find North Koreans mendacious and devious, and almost impossible to understand.

But despite this antipathy the two countries have been forced into a strategic embrace. North Korea needs Chinese aid and diplomatic support, and China needs to avoid a North Korean collapse (which might send floods of refugees into China's north-eastern rust belt). It also finds North Korea a useful buffer against US forces in South Korea.

Moreover North Korean soil is soaked in Chinese blood from the Korean War. The families of the perhaps one million Chinese soldiers who died "defending North Korea against imperialist aggression" feel strongly that an alliance defended at such cost should never be abandoned.

There are however many other Chinese who believe that the time has come to end, or at least reduce, China's support for North Korea. If their view prevails then China has the ability to apply overwhelming pressure to North Korea, by halting aid or limiting trade. If it were ever to do this it is likely that there would be fundamental changes in North Korea ? the trick would be to achieve these without violence.

But there is so far little sign that China will change its policy. If it does not do so then Kim Jong-un's regime will probably suffer no more than minor damage as a consequence of this test. Short of a military intervention in North Korea (for which I detect absolutely no appetite) the United Nations Security Council's only recourse against that country is sanctions.

But China for the most part does not implement the existing Security Council sanctions on North Korea even though it voted for them following that country's two previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

For example, although UN member states are required to report any inspection of a North Korean cargo suspected of containing illicit goods, China has not once done so despite the fact that the great bulk of North Korea's trade flows either across the two countries' common border or through the Chinese port of Dalian, which lies opposite the North Korean port of Nampo.

Luxury goods, whose import into North Korea is banned by the Security Council, in fact reach Pyongyang in large quantities from China, and the UN Panel of Experts that monitors sanctions implementation has reported many times that illicit North Korean arms shipments have travelled unimpeded through Dalian.

So unless China starts effectively to implement sanctions, both the sanctions currently in force, and any new ones that the Security Council may introduce in response to this third nuclear test, will be blunted, and Kim Jong-un will be able to sleep peacefully at night.

This cycle of nuclear (or missile) test followed by sharp words but only ineffective sanctions from the Security Council, followed by another test, is very dangerous. With each iteration North Korea comes closer to being able to launch a nuclear weapon at its arch-enemies, Japan and the United States. Some have argued that it would never in practice do this. I only wish that I were so sure.

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/564430/s/28a23c3b/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cnews0Cworldnews0Casia0Cnorthkorea0C98749660CAnalysis0ENorth0EKoreas0Enuclear0Eambitions0Ecan0Eonly0Ebe0Estopped0Eby0EChina0Bhtml/story01.htm

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